• Cyber deterrence is a proactive security strategy for preventing cyberattacks. Preemptively stopping attacks discourages attackers, making them question the effort. 

• The goal of cyber deterrence is to alter attackers’ risk-reward calculations, making your organization a less attractive target.
  
  

• While the term cyber deterrence is often used in governmental contexts, businesses can employ similar tactics to discourage criminal activities. 

In everyday contexts, criminal deterrence can be as simple as a “beware of dog” sign in a window or a time lock safe at a bank. These efforts present enough of a barrier that potential criminals may feel dissuaded from attempting a robbery. It’s easier to break onto a property with no dog or rob a bank with a less secure vault.

Cyber deterrence follows a similar principle. Organizations aim to show that a cyberattack would be too difficult or too costly for criminals to undertake — it’s not worth their effort to try. This is a preemptive posture. Instead of your company waiting to discover a security breach, using a deterrence strategy elicits fear in the attackers.

But in the fast-moving, shadowy world of cybercrime, is deterrence even possible? An effective strategy shuts down attacks before they even have a chance to mobilize, ultimately discouraging bad actors from trying again. Here’s how it works.

Is Cyber Deterrence Possible?

Cyber deterrence has become increasingly possible thanks to advancements in predictive security technologies and successful implementations. 

For example, The U.S. Department of Defense’s “Defend Forward” approach aims to directly disrupt adversaries’ operations before they can launch attacks. Similarly, private companies are exploring ways to implement proactive cyber defense models within legal and ethical boundaries. 

While achieving complete deterrence remains challenging, significant progress has been made in making cyberattacks less attractive and more costly for malicious actors.

Factors influencing the possibility of deterrence include: 

• Capability 
• Credibility 
• Communication 
• Attribution 

Organizations must demonstrate the power to project targeted, proportionate, and scalable cyberspace effects while clearly signaling their intent to impose consequences for malicious activities.

A compelling example of deterrence is Volksbank, an Italian retail bank. By implementing cyber deterrent technologies, Volksbank significantly reduced phishing attacks and saved millions of dollars. This case demonstrates that consistent preemption can substantially reduce the incentive for attackers, making it a tangible reality.

Achieving a state of cyber deterrence is increasingly becoming a realistic goal for organizations. As technologies like AI-powered security controls and zero-trust architectures continue to evolve, organizations are better equipped to implement preemptive defense strategies. 

Common misconceptions and concerns

Some doubt the ability to predict and preempt all cyberattacks, viewing it as an unrealistic goal. However, it’s crucial to understand that deterrence isn’t about achieving absolute immunity from attacks. Instead, it focuses on significantly reducing the likelihood and impact of attacks by shifting the advantage to the defenders. 

The aim of preemptive measures is to make an organization a less attractive and more difficult target for cybercriminals. By consistently preempting attacks and making them costly and futile for attackers, organizations can create a deterrent effect even if they can’t prevent every possible attack. 

This approach is about changing the risk-reward calculation for potential attackers rather than promising invulnerability.

What Is Cyber Deterrence?

Cyber deterrence is a proactive strategy that aims to prevent cyberattacks by instilling fear of the consequences in would-be attackers. Its focus is on making the cost of an attack outweigh the potential gains for attackers. 

Key components include:

• Predictive threat intelligence
• Preemption
• Deterrence

This approach represents a shift from reactive security to a preemptive defense model. Cyber deterrence mirrors Cold War-era nuclear deterrence, where adversaries were dissuaded from attacking by the credible threat of devastating retaliation against any hostile action. 

Predictive threat intelligence

Predictive threat intelligence involves identifying potential attacks before they are launched. Predictive threat intelligence uses AI to analyze vast data and behavioral patterns to foresee future attacks and enable proactive prevention. 

Unlike traditional threat intelligence, which often focuses on post-attack attribution and forensics, predictive intelligence aims to anticipate threats before they take place.

Preemption

Preemption is based on predictive intelligence, allowing organizations to neutralize or disrupt potential attacks. Preemption strategies involve predicting future attacks by analyzing internet behaviors and then blocking or taking down identified malicious infrastructure. This proactive approach allows security teams to address risks in real time, preventing threats from escalating.

Deterrence

By consistently predicting and preempting attacks, organizations can prevent cybercriminals from targeting them in the future by making their efforts become futile and more costly. This creates a deterrent effect, similar to the Cold War’s mutually assured destruction doctrine.

A cyber deterrence strategy supports the identification of emerging threats with increased precision. The end result is early prevention, improved response times, and strengthened overall cybersecurity defenses.

How It Works in Practice 

Cyber deterrence represents a significant advancement over traditional detect-and-respond cybersecurity models by shifting from reactive to preemptive defense strategies. While detect and respond approaches focus on identifying and mitigating ongoing attacks, deterrence aims to preempt attacks before they occur. 

This is achieved by leveraging advanced technologies to gain foresight into potential threats, making the cost of attacks prohibitively high for malicious actors. BforeAI’s PreCrime™ platform is the ideal example. It continuously monitors a vast portion of the internet, observing over 1 billion infrastructures and millions of domains daily. 

Using behavioral AI, PreCrime™ collects and analyzes network metadata to identify patterns that indicate malicious infrastructure is being built. This extensive data collection allows for predictive scoring with risk scores assigned to infrastructures based on behavioral analysis, predicting the likelihood of future malicious activity.

A key feature of PreCrime™ is its ability to provide Indicators of Future Attack (IoFAs), which offer predictions of attacks weeks or even months before they are launched. On average, PreCrime™ predicts attacks days in advance of other threat intelligence tools, providing a significant advantage over traditional compromise indicators that only signal ongoing or past attacks.

PreCrime™ initiates automated preemption measures once a threat has been identified. Through partnerships with registrars, hosting providers, and other entities, it can swiftly block access to malicious domains and remove fake content. The platform can disrupt attack infrastructure within as little as seven minutes after a malicious prediction. 

This comprehensive approach to deterrence aims to make cyberattacks consistently unsuccessful and prohibitively costly for cybercriminals. It effectively shifts the advantage to defenders and creates a robust deterrent effect for your organization.

Boost Your Cybersecurity with BforeAI

BforeAI is the perfect cyber deterrence partner for your organization thanks to our PreCrime™ platform. It works by predicting, disrupting, and taking down malicious campaigns before they have an opportunity to impact your business. 

BforeAI identifies suspicious infrastructure and predicts attacks days in advance of other threat detection platforms. 

With automated preemption and seamless integration with existing EDR solutions, BforeAI offers a highly effective and accurate solution for outsmarting cybercriminals and establishing a robust deterrence posture.